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How Safe Are the Top Men’s Seeds at the 2015 Australian Open?
Published: January 16, 2015
Ask last year’s surprise winner, No. 8 Stanislas Wawrinka. Tennis fans might have respected his thunderous groundstrokes and edgy determination, but few predicted he would bash his way through Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to claim the title. Casual sports fans may still wonder how a Swiss champion not named Roger Federer was able to win Down Under.
And that’s a cautionary tale for tennis fans who would dismiss the strength and depth of the ATP field and the possibility, even likelihood, that there will be unexpected bracket chaos. There are several dangerous seeds just inside the Top 10, and more than a few others who could contend at Melbourne.
Top Seeds Never a Certainty
How likely is it that Djokovic, Federer, Nadal or this year’s new No. 4 seed Wawrinka make it to the final and win?
Since 1988, when the Australian Open began a new era on hard courts, there have been 27 winners and 54 finalists. We will figure the percentages of championships from 27 and also the number of finals appearances from his side of the bracket (also 27).
No. 1 seeds got to the final from the top half of the bracket 14 times (52 percent). They have won 11 titles (41 percent). No. 2 seeds got to the final from the bottom half of the bracket 10 times (37 percent). They have won six titles (22 percent). We can conclude that No. 1 seeds are significantly more likely to make the final than No. 2 seeds, and that they are nearly twice as likely to win it. This bodes well for Djokovic’s No. 1 seed this year, but indicates that it’s less than likely that No. 2 Federer will make the final.
No. 3 se...
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Tennis
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