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Does the Opening Race of the F1 Season Show Who Will Win Title?
Published: March 21, 2014
Despite the apparent dominance of Mercedes in Australia, with Nico Rosberg winning by a whopping 26.777 seconds from Kevin Magnusson, team boss Toto Wolff remained cautious when quoted on Autosport.com.
An advantage can quickly turn into a disadvantage within a couple of races. We had the first race weekend, we won the race and pace-wise it looked OK, but speaking about us being favourites after the first race would be a bit over the top.
And yet if we look back over the race winners from the opening grands prix from the last 10 seasons or so and how the subsequent season developed, a clear pattern of dominance emerges pretty quickly.
From 2000-2013, seven drivers who have won in Australia have gone on to take the title. It doesn’t take a maths genius to work out that going on those statistics, there’s a 50 percent chance that the winner in Australia will go on to be champion. So why all the Mercedes caution?
Well, for starters, 50 percent of the time it doesn’t happen. Kimi Raikkonen won in Australia last year and enjoyed a competitive half dozen races, and there were an unprecedented seven different winners in the opening seven races in 2012 before Sebastian Vettel eventually clinched a hard-fought title.
Wolff will also be wary that at the start of a season which has seen the most radical regulation changes in a generation, things could turn around very quickly. No teams stand still waiting for their rivals to disappear into the distance, and Mercedes’ rivals will have looked very closely at what they are doing right and adjust accordingly.
After an abject display in pre-season testing, who could have predicted that Red Bull...
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Formula 1
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