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Data Analysis: Does Jules Bianchi’s Monaco Finish Show Marussia’s True Pace?
Published: May 29, 2014
At the 2014 Monaco Grand Prix, Marussia's Jules Bianchi finished in the top 10 for the first time in the team's history, securing their first world championship points.
Bianchi finished ahead of Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen and McLaren's Kevin Magnussen (assisted by the Finn's ill-advised passing manoeuvre at the hairpin), as well as Lotus' Romain Grosjean, although a five-second penalty bumped Bianchi behind his countryman in the official classification.
The question is: Was Marussia's performance just a fluke, assisted by several DNFs and the nature of the Circuit de Monaco, where passing is very difficult (though not impossible—cf. Bianchi and Nico Hulkenberg), or was it the culmination of a series of incremental improvements over the last four-and-a-half years?
Before the season, I examined whether Marussia and their fellow 2010 newcomer, Caterham, had been making any discernible progress up the grid despite not having any points to show for their efforts. The answer was yes, and I wrote that "it is not a stretch to imagine a race early in the 2014 season where a few engine failures, perhaps a collision leading to a couple retirements, and Caterham and Marussia's increased pace combine to allow one of those teams to finally sneak into the top 10."
Now that it has happened, let's look at one of the trends identified in that article and see if they have continued into this season.
Here are the average Q1 gaps between the highest-ranked Marussia car and the lowest-ranked car of the more established teams:
As you can see, Marussia has reduced the average gap every year since 2011, continuing that trend through the first six races this season.
The number for 2014 is skewed by the qualifying results from Australia, where Lotus barely made it onto the track and Bianchi's teammate Max Chilton out-qualified Grosjean by 2.700 seconds....
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Formula 1
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